🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|